Wealth Management

Posted by Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Good investments generally offer investors an opportunity to buy growth at an attractive price. Slower growth investments can work at lower prices, just as higher growth investments can work at higher prices. What you pay for the earnings (or dividend) stream matters, not just how fast those streams are flowing. Here we take a look at price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) by sector to see where the price of that growth may be most attractive.

Communication services valuations look attractive despite the mega-cap technology allocation

The accompanying figure compares P/Es to earnings growth using what is commonly called the PEG ratio (P/E divided by growth). For growth in the chart we use consensus earnings in 2024 over 2023. The first thing that jumps out is communication services looks like a good value at a PEG ratio of 0.9. Historically, anything below one is considered quite attractive. The sector trades at a 6% discount to the S&P 500 on 2024 estimates, reflecting 19% growth. That 19% growth rate may not be sustained for much more than a year or two, but investors looking ahead a year will see an attractive relative opportunity there if estimates are realized and artificial intelligence (AI) provides the boost many anticipate for Alphabet/Google (GOOG/L), Meta/Facebook (META), and others in the digital media space.

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Warming up to communication services. LPL Research’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) maintains a neutral view on communication services but has warmed up to the sector in recent weeks on a combination of improving technical analysis trends, a solid earnings growth outlook (despite Google’s disappointing cloud results last night), and quite reasonable valuations. Well-received results from Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), and AT&T (T) have also been encouraging over the past week.

Healthcare also looks cheap on this metric. The healthcare sector, rated neutral by STAAC) has been a huge disappointment this year with its 4.9% year-to-date decline compared to the roughly 10% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500. Earnings season has been disappointing as the COVID-19 demand dissipates and some key drugs come off patent. But on a technical basis, the sector may be near a trough. As the economy slows over the next several quarters, the defensive characteristics of healthcare could become more attractive to market participants.

Energy is cheap on cash flows. Energy looks expensive through this lens but given the sector’s capital intensity, cash flow metrics that remove depreciation are better. On a cash flow basis, energy remains attractively valued in our view.

Real estate looks expensive. Similar to energy, real estate is more appropriately valued on cash flows (funds from operations, or FFO) excluding depreciation, but looks expensive to us given the risk of further deterioration in commercial real estate markets. It would not surprise us if real estate did not generate any earnings or cash flow growth in 2024.

Current Sector Views

LPL Research’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) continues to favor the energy and industrials sectors and rates communication services neutral, but with a positive bias. On the flip side, STAAC suggest caution toward consumer staples and real estate and maintains negative views of those sectors

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

The move higher in Treasury yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer term Treasury yields bearing the brunt of the selloff recently. Since the end of July, 10-year yields are up over 0.90% and 30-year yields up 1.0%. While most of the move can be explained by the changing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, an increase in the Treasury term premium has pushed yields higher as well.

Economic theory suggests that each security on the Treasury yield curve can be thought of as the expected fed funds rate over the maturity of the security, plus or minus a term premium. The Treasury term premium is the additional compensation required by investors for owning longer maturity Treasury securities. The term premium, which is unobservable and thus has to be estimated, takes into consideration things like Treasury supply/demand dynamics, foreign central bank expectations and the potential for higher inflation in the future, to name a few. And since the end of July, which is when the last Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) was made that surprised markets because of how much new debt would be coming to market, the term premium has increased dramatically. The next QRA is October 30, so if the Treasury department surprises markets again with the amount of debt coming to market, we could continue to see the term premium move higher.

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The term premium had largely been negative (since 2016) until recently. That time period coincided with steadily falling inflation as well as central banks that were actively owning large amounts of Treasury bonds. If those two conditions are fading, along with a supply/demand picture that remains tenuous, then the bond term premium may indeed be headed higher. How high? Getting back to normal would imply around a 1% term premium or nearly double from current levels, which could continue to pressure yields higher.

So what does this mean for fixed income investors? A positive term premium will likely keep longer term interest rates elevated and could reduce the diversification benefits of core bonds. Regarding the former, while monetary policy expectations are still going to be the primary driver of changes in interest rates, as the Fed starts to cut rates, longer term interest rates likely won’t fall as much as they otherwise would have absent a positive term premium. And as for the latter, while we still think Treasury securities will be the safe haven choice in the event of a broad macro equity market sell-off, they may not be the defensive choice for garden variety equity market selloffs. With cash rates at levels last seen in 2007, cash and cash plus alternatives could be good defensive options for portfolios. But, with yields on most fixed income asset classes at levels last seen over a decade ago, the longer term return potential for fixed income is the best it’s been in quite some time as well. Starting yields are the best predictor of future returns (over longer time horizons) so if Treasury yields remain elevated that of course means yields for other bond asset classes will be higher as well which means fixed income returns will likely be higher too.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced in this publication, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist

Friday, October 20, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is proceeding carefully, something we highlighted here almost a month ago.
• Geopolitical tensions post key risks to the outlook, something that could ensure the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes a wait-and-see approach with further tightening.
• Additional hikes are in the cards only if there is additional evidence of a strong economy.
• The Fed is not yet convinced where inflation will settle over the next few quarters, which means the committee will not pre-commit. Each meeting will be a live meeting.

Bottom Line: As of this morning, markets were pricing in a roughly 20% chance the Fed will increase rates in December, and if not in December, then a higher likelihood of an increase in January. However, we believe the economy is slowing enough that the markets are overpricing the likelihood of more rate hikes.

Did He Calm Markets?

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of New York yesterday along with a brief—and unscheduled—presentation from a group aptly named Climate Defiance.[1] Despite the interruption, the Chair was going to continue with the theme developed earlier in the week from several other members of the FOMC. To wit, the Committee sees risks as roughly balanced between over- and under-tightening. If rates were too low, inflation could resurge and if rates get too high, the economy were more likely feel a hard landing. In an effort to calm markets, Powell reiterated his desire for the FOMC to proceed carefully in the next several months.

But, markets initially did not know how to process his comments. Yields on the 2-year Treasury initially dropped on the news and then reversed course only to dip several basis points again. (One basis point is 0.01%.) Markets eventually were able to process the new information and yields continue to fall this morning.

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Is Inflation Easing or Not?

The temporary scare for markets was the confession that the FOMC is unsure where inflation will settle over the next few quarters. In our view, many aspects of inflation are getting less sticky, creating reasonable expectations that inflation will ease further in coming months. Rent prices are off their peak according to industry reports, and investors should also know there is a sizable lag in time between a reported movement in industry rental data and the official government metrics. By the end of the year, the inflation trajectory should be clearer for both policy makers and investors.

Recession or No?

From an investment standpoint, the “recession call” may end up being less relevant. A recession could still emerge as consumers buckle under debt burdens and use up their excess savings, but a Fed sensitive to risk management might provide the salve necessary for more risk appetite. Investing is a relative game, meaning the U.S. could experience the 3 D’s of an economic contraction—depth, diffusion, and duration—but at the same time, still outperform other markets and hence, still be an attractive option for investors looking for calculated risk.

A shallow recession would likely provide a boon for the domestic markets, as it would increase the odds of the Fed cutting rates and bring the labor market into better balance. History shows markets tend to rally as the Fed pivots away from a tightening bias.

Recent Asset Allocation Change

The Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recently recommended reducing allocations to developed international equities and increasing allocations to the U.S. Growth estimates for Q3 will be released October 26 and will likely be better than expected in the U.S. and deteriorating technical analysis trends in Europe are the primary reasons for the change, while currency risk is elevated.

Conclusion:

Markets struggled to process Chairman Powell’s remarks yesterday. However, investors should take yesterday’s speech in the context of what they learned from the latest Beige Book in order to get a clearer picture on future interest rates. Investors learned earlier this week that business is slowing and delinquencies are picking up, indicating the economy is no longer on a strong growth trajectory. By the end of the year, markets will get a clearer view and policymakers will likely have more clarity on growth and inflation trajectories. Patience is a necessary trait for long-term investors.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 has made an impressive recovery after finding support near 4,200, a level that traces back to an uptrend off the October 2022 lows and the rising 200-day moving average (dma).
• Momentum is improving off deeply oversold levels. The S&P 500’s Bullish Percent Index (BPI) recently fell below 30%. Historically, oversold BPI readings of this magnitude have represented buying opportunities. The broader market has posted respective average one-, three-, and six-month returns of 2.7%, 6.1%, and 8.8% after the BPI crosses below 30%.
• Of course, the current recovery doesn’t come without risks, and we continue to view monetary policy uncertainty and the recent breakout in both the dollar and Treasury yields as major headwinds for continued equity market momentum.

October is off to an impressive start, with the S&P 500 trading up just over 4% as of October 17. The rebound follows a dismal September that left the market oversold and clinging to support near the rising 200-dma. However, buyers quickly came back into the market to take advantage of the dip, as earnings optimism, signs of a potential peak in Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, continued economic resiliency, and easing oil prices helped offset concerns over building Treasury market volatility.

As shown below, the pullback off the July 31 high found support just above 4,200 earlier this month. This key support area coincides with previous highs and lows, an uptrend off the October lows, and the rising 200-dma.

The middle panel of the chart shows the BPI for the S&P 500. The BPI represents the percentage of stocks within the S&P 500 with a current Point & Figure buy signal—a field of technical analysis that utilizes filtered price movements to generate buy and sell signals. BPI readings above and below 50% are considered bullish and bearish, respectively, while the BPI can also be utilized to identify overbought (readings above 70%) and oversold (readings below 30%) conditions. Earlier this month, the BPI fell to only 28.2%, marking over a two-standard deviation move below its average since 1996.

Finally, the bottom panel shows the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator. MACD combines momentum and trend following into a single indicator using convergences and divergences between a long- and short-term exponential moving average. The indicator has recently rebounded from its lowest level since October 2022, triggering a buy signal early last week.

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Bullish Percent Index Signals

The big question among investors now is whether the stock rebound will continue. To help answer this question and quantify the impact of oversold conditions, we back-tested several BPI signals, including:

• When BPI crosses below 30%—indicative of washed-out market breadth/extreme oversold conditions.
• When BPI crosses back above 30%—indicative of improving market breadth/oversold conditions.
• When BPI crosses back above 30% when MACD is in a buy position—indicative of oversold conditions and market breadth improving with a bullish momentum shift.
• A minimum 10-day filter was applied to eliminate overlap in signals.

As shown below, oversold BPI readings of this magnitude have historically represented buying opportunities for stocks. The S&P 500 has posted respective average one-, three-, and six-month returns of 2.7%, 6.1%, and 8.8% after the BPI crosses below 30%. Returns generally skew higher for BPI crosses above 30%, especially on a six- and 12-month basis when a MACD buy signal accompanies the crossover.

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SUMMARY

Technical evidence is building for a sustainable S&P 500 recovery off the 4,200 area of support. Momentum has turned bullish after reaching historically oversold levels earlier this month, and historical comparisons to similar inflection points point to above-average market gains over the next 12 months. Of course, the recovery doesn’t come without risks, and we continue to view monetary policy uncertainty and the recent breakout in both the dollar and Treasury yields as major headwinds for continued equity market momentum. While the overall technical backdrop has improved for stocks, interest rate stabilization (at minimum) will likely be key for continued upside in the fourth quarter.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

The move higher in Treasury yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer term Treasury yields bearing the brunt of the move. Rates are moving higher alongside a U.S. economy that has continued to outperform expectations and not due to higher inflation fears. As such, the move higher has been largely driven by an increase in “real” yields, or inflation-adjusted yields or just TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

TIPS are Treasury securities whose principal and interest payments are adjusted for inflation. Unlike other Treasury securities, where the principal is fixed, the principal of a TIPS can go up or down over its term. So, when the TIPS matures, if the principal is higher than the original principal amount, you get the increased amount. If the principal is equal to or lower than the original principal amount, you get the original amount. So, since these securities are government guaranteed, TIPS investors who hold the individual bonds to maturity receive, at a minimum, the original investment back plus coupons (paid semiannually) but could get more than the original investment if inflation surprises to the upside.

So, after spending years in negative territory, TIPS yields are decidedly positive again for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities and value has been restored in the TIPS market. Moreover, since 2007, TIPS yields have rarely been higher.

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Looking at trailing returns, however, investors may be surprised to see the negative returns generated by the TIPS index (Bloomberg U.S. TIPS Index) despite generationally high inflationary pressures. The challenge for TIPS, has not been the inflationary environment (and thus the adjustment), but rather the aggressive rate hiking campaign by the Fed to arrest those high inflation pressures. And while TIPS provide a hedge against inflation, they do not provide a hedge against higher interest rates. So, with the Fed close to the end of its rate hiking campaign, the volatility experienced in TIPS over the last few years may be coming to an end as well. And with yields at levels last seen in over a decade, TIPS could provide an attractive real return for particularly those investors who can buy and hold individual bonds to maturity.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) help eliminate inflation risk to your portfolio as the principal is adjusted semiannually for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index – while providing a real rate of return guaranteed by the U.S. Government.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced in this publication, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Posted by Adam Turnquist, CMT, VP Chief Technical Strategist

Friday, October 13, 2023

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 wrapped up the first year of the bull market yesterday. While the 21.6% gain was historically underwhelming, it is understandable given the challenging backdrop of global tightening, surging interest rates, elevated equity valuations, sticky inflation, and imminent recession calls.
• History suggests this bull market could have more room to run. Average and median 12-month returns for the S&P 500 have averaged around 13% to 14% during the second year of a bull market, with all 14 occurrences posting positive results.
• Don’t expect a linear path higher as maximum drawdowns during the second year of a bull market vary greatly, ranging from -6.2% to -33.9%.

Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the bull market. The S&P 500 has come a long way since the October 12, 2022 closing low and faced a lot of skepticism along the way. Continued global monetary tightening, surging interest rates, elevated equity valuations, sticky inflation, and a steady stream of headlines pointing to an imminent recession have been just a few of the headwinds for stocks to overcome. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 prevailed and posted a 21.6% price gain over the last 12 months.

While investors have applauded the transition to a bull market, performance during the first year points to more of a golf clap than a standing ovation. The chart below highlights the S&P 500’s average and median progression off all bear market lows going back to 1957—when the modern design of the 500-stock index was first launched. One standard deviation bands around the average progression are also included to highlight the variance in performance.

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From a historical context, the first year of this bull market has underwhelmed in terms of upside. The 21.6% price gain ranks as an outlier year and the second-lowest 12-month gain off a bear market low since 1957. For additional context, average and median 12-month returns for the S&P 500 off a bear market low have been 39.6% and 33.7%, respectively.

Second-Year Bulls

With the bull market’s one-year anniversary party now over, we looked ahead to see how the S&P 500 has historically performed during the second year of a bull market. The table below— ranked by lowest-to-highest first-year returns—highlights the index’s average and median returns during the second year of a bull market.

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History suggests this bull market could have more room to run. Average and median 12-month returns for the S&P 500 have averaged around 13% to 14% during the second year of a bull market, with all 14 occurrences posting positive results. Of course, do not expect a linear path higher as maximum drawdowns during the second year of a bull market vary greatly, ranging from -6.2% to -33.9%, averaging out to -16.3%.

In terms of progression, the S&P 500 has some catching up to do in the second year of this bull market. As shown below, the S&P 500 is currently tracking below the one-standard-deviation band of the historical progression off a bear market low. The index would have to climb another 35% over the next 12 months to reach the average and median two-year bull market returns of around 57%.

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SUMMARY

The S&P 500 has wrapped up the first year of the bull market with a gain of 21.6%, underwhelming from a historical context but respectable given the challenging macro backdrop over the last 12 months. While some of these headwinds are still blowing, we expect them to recede as the bull market progresses into its second year. Notably, the Federal Reserve is expected to end its rate-hiking cycle as inflation cools, taking some upside pressure off interest rates, which have been in the driver’s seat for stocks all year. History also suggests this bull market may have more room to run. Average and median 12-month returns for the S&P 500 have averaged around 13% to 14% during the second year of a bull market.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

Posted by Jeffrey J. Roach, PhD, Chief Economist

Thursday, October 12, 2023

Key Takeaway: The rise in shelter costs in September was the largest contributor to headline inflation but will not likely show up in upcoming months as rent prices moderate. Annual core inflation decelerated to 4.1% in September from 4.3% the previous month.

Highlights from the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report:

• Annual headline inflation was 3.7%, unchanged from August as firms are still able to pass along higher wholesale prices.
• Core inflation decelerated to 4.1% in September, slightly below the previous month’s rate of 4.3%.
• Shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in consumer inflation, accounting for over half of the increase, but this category should not be as impactful in the coming months as softer rent prices work their way into the official government metrics.
• Costs of medical care services fell -2.6% from a year ago, indicating that some categories are getting less sticky.
• Used vehicle prices fell in September for the fourth consecutive month, pulling the annual decline down to -8%.
• Markets are still processing the implications of the latest report. Some shorter duration yields spiked up to the levels reached after the strong payroll report last week.

Bottom Line: Core inflation less shelter is not as sticky as it had been last year or earlier this year. Market expectations are unchanged for what the Federal Reserve (Fed) will do at the November meeting. However, investors should be carefully watching oil prices for insight into how the Fed will act at the December meeting.

Inflation Coming Down, Remains Above Fed’s Target

The September CPI data provides an updated view of the inflation situation in the United States. While certain components of the report indicate inflation is slowing, there are underlying variables that continue to influence the total rate. According to the September CPI report, consumer prices rose by 3.7% year over year, the same annual rate recorded in August. Although this is a reduction from the high levels seen in 2022, it is crucial to remember that inflation remains above the Fed’s long-run 2% target.

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Shelter Costs and Headline Inflation

The large rise in shelter costs was a key factor in September’s consumer inflation report. This surge was the main driver of headline inflation for the month, contributing more than half of the increase. Although shelter prices were significant this month, their impact is not anticipated to be as strong in the following months. Rent prices are off their peak according to industry reports, and investors should also know that there is a sizable lag in time between a reported movement in industry rental data and the official government metrics.

Core inflation excluding shelter was unchanged from the previous month and up only 1.9% from a year ago. Clearly, the inflation experience on homeowners is quite different than the experience felt by renters.

Deceleration in Core Inflation

The September figures reveal several noteworthy trends, one of which is the apparent slowdown in annual core inflation. This measure dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% in the previous month, showing a moderating trend in core inflation rates. Core inflation excludes the volatile components of food and energy, providing a more stable gauge of price movements in the economy. This moderation in core inflation could be attributed to several factors, including a decline in durable goods such as used cars and lower prices for medical care services.

Inflation will likely lose more of its stickiness in the coming months as the official rent component eases in line with industry observations.

Insights from the September CPI Report

In September, we saw price declines in a number of industries, including airfare, pre-owned cars, and clothing. Apparel prices fell the most in September since the middle of the pandemic. Perhaps now is the time to update the wardrobe but look for alternative ways to watch Leo Messi, the superstar of the Miami soccer team. Tickets to sporting events rose the fastest pace since mid-2021 as fans were eager to see arguably the best soccer player of all time. These patterns highlight how consumer tastes and the overall economic environment are always changing and can impact the real economy. As a side note, the “Taylor Swift” effect is real.

When excluding housing-related costs, consumer inflation showed a 1.9% increase from a year ago (See Inflation Dashboard below). A potential fall in consumer demand for travel-related services may suppress some categories in the coming months. Certain businesses, such as hospitality and tourism, will be impacted by this changing consumer behavior.

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Concluding Thoughts

Markets are still processing the implications of the latest report. Some shorter duration yields spiked up to the levels reached after the strong payroll report last week. Core inflation less shelter is not as sticky as it had been last year or earlier this year. Market expectations are unchanged for what the Fed will do at the November meeting. However, investors should be carefully watching oil prices for insight into how the Fed will act at the December meeting.

Given the anticipated easing in rent prices in the upcoming months, core inflation, which increased 4.1% from a year ago, will likely decelerate further this year.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

Posted by Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Rating agencies have been busy lately. While one of the big three (Fitch) made headlines recently when it downgraded U.S. government debt, the other two (Moody’s and S&P) have been busy quietly downgrading U.S. corporate debt at an elevated pace. With the increase in Treasury yields over the past few years, corporate interest payments are set to increase as well. And while the health of the corporate landscape is generally positive, rating agencies are starting to adjust their outlooks based upon, among other things, the expected increase in debt payments.

The ratings environment remains relatively calm for companies across investment grade as the asset class has enjoyed an upgrade-to-downgrade ratio well above lower-rated peers. High yield has taken the brunt of downgrades and will likely continue to in the coming quarters. September marked the 15th straight month with a negative combined upgrade-to-downgrade ratio, as the measure between S&P and Moody’s finished the month at -1.2x (meaning there were 20% more downgrades than upgrades). Moody’s remained more pessimistic, with the ratio at -1.4x. S&P had an upgrade-to-downgrade ratio of -1.1x. Year to date, S&P has downgraded its outlook and the outright rating on 787 companies versus only 492 upgrades, which makes 2023 already the worst year for downgrades since 2020 (Moody’s has downgraded 568 companies this year vs. 427 upgrades).

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With the higher for longer narrative coming from the Federal Reserve (Fed), it’s likely corporate debt payments will continue to increase as well. And while many corporate borrowers took advantage of low interest rates and issued a lot of debt, debt refinancings are set to pick up with nearly 30% of debt issued by CCC-rated companies coming due over the next few years (as outlined in this blog post). As such, we remain cautious on corporate credit broadly but think the short-to-intermediate part of the investment grade corporate credit curve offers compelling risk/reward. However, despite the recent sell-off in high yield, we still don’t think the risk/reward is very attractive for that asset class given the broader macro and refinancing risks, which will likely keep rating downgrades and defaults at an elevated pace.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced in this publication, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Posted by George Smith, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Portfolio Strategist

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Additional content provided by Kent Cullinane, Analyst

On Saturday, Hamas, a Palestinian militant group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government, launched an attack on Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and taking dozens more hostage. In response to the attack, Israel launched a counteroffensive on Hamas positions in the Gaza Strip (one of two Palestinian territories, the other being the West Bank), a territory home to 2.3 million Palestinians under Hamas rule.

While volatility initially impacted markets to start the week, investors seemingly shrugged off the tragic geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.3 percent Monday. This market reaction may reflect the view that the conflict will remain focused on just Gaza and Israel, rather than spreading into oil producing regions throughout the Middle East. The market response is also likely looking at any potential for a slowdown in the global economy as increasing the likelihood of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hiking cycle.

Stock Market Performance Following Prior Geopolitical Events

So, how have markets historically reacted to geopolitical crisis events, including wars and terrorist attacks? We look back at two dozen or so such events going back to World War II in the table below:

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As you can see above, the average one-day return at the onset of a geopolitical event is -1.1%. The S&P’s 0.3% gain Monday was unusual compared to history, as a positive one-day return only occurred four out of the 23 events we studied.

While the total drawdown related to this tragic event and recovery timetable are unknown, based on prior geopolitical events, the average drawdown is -4.7%, while the average time to reach market bottom is 19 days, and the average time to fully recover losses is 42 days. In other words, equities have historically held up well during geopolitical shocks, including wars and other military conflicts going back decades, with the average recovery taking roughly two months. Even the market recovery from 9/11 took only 31 days.

Looking at a slightly wider list of events that also includes major non-war related historical events and how stocks performed over the next year after the event it seems that the main determinant of returns is not the severity of the event but whether the event coincided with, or caused, a recession. Assuming no imminent recession, LPL Research’s base case scenario currently, history shows that markets are roughly flat over the next month following an event but on average recover in the following three, six, and 12-month periods. In the case of an event near a recession however stocks are down on average over all the time periods studied (one, three, six and 12-months).

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Impact on the Path of Interest Rates

The weekend attacks on Israel affected markets’ expectations for the path of interest rates. On Monday the market implied probability of an increase in the fed funds target rate next month fell below 14% (after being almost 50% at the start of September and 30% last week) as investors anticipate the conflict has the potential to put a brake on the global economy this quarter. Despite a strong headline payroll report on Friday, wage pressures eased, adding support to markets’ view that the Fed will keep the target rate unchanged when the FOMC meets on November 1. Recent comments from Fed officials have also pointed in that direction by acknowledging the markets have done some of the Fed’s work by pushing yields on the intermediate and long parts of the Treasury curve higher. Interest rate sensitive sectors such as technology, communication services and utilities were amongst the bigger outperformers on Monday as expectations for further hikes in 2023 diminished.

Impact on the Energy Sector

Crude oil prices are on hyper-alert for any indication the conflict is poised to spread into the oil producing regions in the Middle East, particularly with regard to Iran. Initial reports suggested Iran supported and helped with logistics of the attack on Israel, but Iran denies having any role. Iran is suspected to be wary of recent progress that had been made toward a historic peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that would reshape political power dynamics in the Middle East. The U.S. is involved in a broad reaching diplomatic effort to keep the conflict contained. Oil prices, however, may move dramatically higher if it appears the diplomatic effort is failing, and Iran is brought into the conflict.

Crude oil prices had been oversold coming into this week, but with a headline driven market sometimes filled with rumors and inaccurate reporting, oil prices can be subject to significant swings. Any chatter that Israel, now seemingly focused on shutting down Hamas’s operations, is preparing to strike beyond the immediate conflict, will escalate upward pressure on prices.

The first place markets will see the impact of fighting in Israel will undoubtedly be the increased risk premium embedded in oil prices, which would be expected to support the energy sector as markets assess the likelihood that Iran is brought into the conflict. Unsurprisingly the energy sector had the largest outperformance on Monday with a daily return of over 3.5%. LPL Research maintains its overweight recommendation on the energy sector.

Impact on Equity Positioning

The potential impact on the broader equity markets is difficult to predict because the risk of a wider conflict involving Iran or other countries in the region is still difficult to assess. Still, that risk, especially if it did materialize, could push volatility higher (although the volatility index, or VIX for short, actually ended Monday only marginally higher than Fridays close), sending stocks lower, and perhaps shift market leadership more toward defensives (utilities, gold, Treasuries, etc.). To be clear, this is not our base case.

If conflict remains contained to Israel and Gaza, while the humanitarian impact will still be devastating, the market impact will likely be very limited as Israel contributes only about 0.5% of world gross domestic product (GDP) and not a major producer of crude oil.

Defense stocks should catch a bid as defense spending will likely increase if this news provides a catalyst for Congress to act to bolster supplies of munitions and air defense systems that are now being supplied to both Ukraine and Israel.

The Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) maintains its neutral stance on equities but will continue to watch developments in the Middle East closely to determine potential impact on the energy sector, the broader equity markets, and the path of interest rates.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. For more information on the risks associated with the strategies and product types discussed please visit https://lplresearch.com/Risks  

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value